Global Media Trends until 2022
The global media market is massive and estimated at a whopping US$ 1.9 tn in 2018 or 2.5% of world GDP. The sector is very healthy with a CAGR of 5-6%. Unsurprisingly it is driven by overall economic growth and the technological and content innovation made possible by the digital revolution and changing consumer habits. Traditional media such as newspapers and magazines are and will continue to face an inexorable decline whilst expenditure for broadband, video games and digital advertising are still seeing a stellar growth of 7-13%. Even traditional TV advertising will continue to grow at 3-5%. Digitalization and access to finance has allowed new competitors like Netflix or Amazon to emerge in just a few years while traditional giants such as Time Warner, Bertelsmann or Lagardère are struggling.
Looking further out to immediate future until 2022 the most dynamic sectors are as follows:
- Virtual reality will experience a stellar growth. Nearly non-existent in 2016 the number of VR headsets will grow to 175 million and virtual reality content for video or gaming will grow to US$ 21 bn.
- OTT (over the top content), i.e. the on-demand video market will also grow strongly from US$ 40 bn to US$ 60 bn helped by the massive content and marketing investments by Netflix, Amazon and traditional pay-tv providers trying to catch up.
- Internet Advertising will continue to grow at a CAGR of 9% to reach US$ 340 bn. The growth will mainly be captured by the GAFA and their Chinese counterparts.
- Video Gaming and E-sports will reach US$ 140 bn. The strongest growth will be experienced by e-sport with a CAGR of 21%. Although still small, the sector will grow from US$ 620 m to US$ 1.6 bn.
- Even traditional cinema will show moderate growth from US$ 50 bn to US$ 55 bn.
- B2B media will increasingly move to data centric and digital product offerings. Growth will be slow at 1% CAGR but the sector remains massive with a projected overall revenue of US$ 220 bn.
- Music will grow by 3.5% CAGR from US$ 95 bn to US$ 123 bn with growth being mainly funneled by streaming and live music.
Overall the global media sector is very healthy but changing rapidly and therefore offering numerous opportunities for growth by acquisitions/financing, be it in media content or media-related technology.
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